Dr. Musarat Amin
Researcher and Environmentalist
Karachi, Pakistan

 

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In Pakistan, climate change is a pressing issue with significant implications for the Country’s socio-economic development, environmental sustainability, and human security. The impacts of climate change in Pakistan are diverse and multifaceted, affecting various sectors including agriculture, water resources, health, infrastructure, and biodiversity. There are several aspect of climate change which are required to be understood.

Pakistan is grappling with a concerning rise in average temperatures, leading to an escalation in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. This worrying trend not only poses significant health risks to the population but also has far-reaching implications for agricultural productivity, water resources, and energy demand.

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One notable example of the impact of rising temperatures was observed in the Sindh province of Pakistan. In 2015, the province was struck by a devastating heat wave, resulting in a tragic loss of more than 700 lives in June alone. The majority of these fatalities were attributed to heatstroke and severe dehydration, particularly in the city of Karachi, where temperatures surged to an unprecedented level. During the peak of the heat wave, temperatures in Karachi surged to over 42°C, with the mercury touching a scorching 45°C on June 22nd. This extreme heat was just one of several others. Shockingly the city’s highest recorded temperature back in 1938 was 48°C disastrous but at that time there was no awareness about heat waves due to the lack of information resources. But now in modern times media issues alerts to people and they can take ample precautions. The rapid and sustained increase in temperatures in recent years created a dangerous environment, as local infrastructure is not resilient enough to counter the effects of heat wave. That’s the reason it poses grave risks to public health. The heat wave not only resulted in immediate human casualtiesbut also had severe implications for various sectors of the economy.

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Agriculture, a critical sector that ensures internal food security in Pakistan, suffered from reduced crop yields and livestock losses due to extreme heat and water scarcity. A lot of livestock died due to lack of water on one side and thousands of flooded away in 2022. Additionally, the increased demand for energy in the form of cooling appliances across the country placed significant strain on the already overburdened power supply infrastructure. Pakistan already is an energy starved country as several energy projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CASA- 1000 and India-Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline are either unable to complete rising energy demands or they were stalled due to lack of resources and political contestations. Country is yet to take into account the projects of clean and green energy projects as energy produced from fossil fuels is a damaging contributor to climate change.

According to the United Nations Chronicle “the epic floods in Pakistan in the year 2022 vividly and brutally confirmed the growing magnitude of climate disasters. They left tens of thousands killed or injured; millions displaced; 13,000 km of roads, 2 million homes, 500 bridges and 5 million acres of crops destroyed; and one third of the country literally under water.”
According to the World Bank press release in the month of October 2022 estimating flood damage and economic losses, “The assessment estimates total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion.

Estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion”. Almost every sector of the country including livestock, agriculture, housing, transport, communication and many more were significantly damaged.

“Housing, Agriculture and Livestock, Transport and Communications sectors suffered the most significant damage, at USD 5.6 billion, USD 3.7 billion, and USD 3.3 billion, respectively. Sindh is the worst affected province with close to 70 percent of total damages and losses, followed by Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab.”

These findings underscore the severe impact of climate change on Pakistan’s economy and society. The substantial economic losses indicate the need for urgent action to mitigate the adverse effects of environmental degradation and climate change. Furthermore, the widespread destruction of homes due to devastating floods underscores the humanitarian consequences of environmental disasters, highlighting the vulnerability of communities to such events. Those communities who constitute a larger chunk of the country and reside in rural areas.

The report serves as a stark reminder of the pressing need for effective measures to address environmental challenges and build resilience against climate-related risks in Pakistan. It also reminds to emphasize the importance of implementing sustainable development practices, investing in climate adaptation and disaster preparedness efforts, and fostering international cooperation to tackle the growing threat of climate change.

In September 2023, the World Bank reported that Pakistan’s poverty rate rose to 39.4 percent in 2023, from 34.2 percent in 2022, pushing an additional 12.5 million people below the poverty line due to GDP contraction, rising food and energy costs and the severe impact of the 2022 floods.

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Environmental changes and rising temperatures could lead to another possible flood in the near future, not only impacting Pakistan’s economy and society but also raising concerns of potential conflict and hunger. South Asia is more prone to internal and external conflict as a result of climate change. As water dispute between India and Pakistan has not been amicably resolved. In case of famine, droughts, mass migration internally may put immense pressure on government to take measure. In desperation an interstate conflict is more likely under such circumstances. An internal conflict is equally likely as all the provinces are disputing over equal distribution of natural resources. If any natural calamity it’s due to climate change, an internal climate-induced conflict may put climate refugees at more risk of starvation and suffering. Such situations seem far from happening just like two decades ago climate change was just concept without any reality. Countries took almost two decades to realize it damaging effects.

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ven during the recent floods, it was noticed that the governmental capacity in rescue operations remained unsatisfactory. International donors came forward to extend aid in rehabilitation of the affectee.

In the past, we have also seen how aid for flood-affected and earthquake-affected victims from foreign countries was distributed, there were reported massive corruption and irregularities in the disbursement of funds allocated for flood victims.

Urbanization is a natural phenomenon as people migrate from rural areas to urban areas for sake of better health, education and career opportunities. But governments plan new cities instead of overcrowding already established urban centers. In case of Pakistan new cities were not developed with sufficient climate resilient infrastructure.

Due to economic and social reasons, migration from rural to urban areas has also severely affected the environment in Pakistan. The massive influx of people into urban areas has strained urban infrastructure and facilities. Because of that very reason the pressure of overpopulation has led Karachi, a metropolitan city, to face urban flooding every year. A city that is called backbone of Pakistan’s economy may not be operationalized for days because of the urban flooding.

The United Nations has included Pakistan in its list of countries vulnerable to rising sea levels. Pakistan faces two types of serious threats; due to an increase in temperature in the north, glaciers are melting while in the south, sea levels are rising.

Pakistan is part of several agreements besides the global environmental agreement, which relates to coping the climate changes.

To cope up with climate change and the natural disasters that result from it, Pakistan needs not only technical knowhow from the international community but also require climate justice. We did not create this monster, but it is the result of the policies of developed industrial countries and their emissions into climate that we are suffering the consequences of natural disasters and unexpected floods. Major contribution to environmental degradations is of industrialized countries whereas least developing are suffering more.

The political will to address climate change is crucial for implementing effective policies and initiatives to mitigate its impacts. However, the level of seriousness shown by major political parties can often be gauged by whether or not they include climate change in their manifesto or policy agendas. When political parties do not prioritize climate change in their manifestos, it reflects a lack of commitment and recognition of the urgency of the issue. This absence reflects a failure to acknowledge the significant threats posed by climate change to the environment, economy, and society.
Furthermore, excluding climate change from political agendas can hinder progress towards sustainable development and adaptation measures. It reflects a disregard for the long-term well-being of the population and the environment.

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Addressing the challenges posed by rising temperatures and heat waves requires comprehensive strategy that encompasses both mitigation and adaptation measures. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb the impacts of climate change must be in compliance to investments in heat-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and public health initiatives. By taking proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change, Pakistan can better protect its population and build resilience against future environmental challenges and reverse environmental degradation.

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There is an urgent need that all political parties must come up with a consensus on prioritizing climate change a major threat to country’s national security and devise a plan to counter its impact. It also requires international cooperation and Pakistan must proactively adhere to international climate change actions and policies to avert any future calamities caused by the effects of climate change.

#. Dr. Musarat Amin is a UK based researcher. She is environmentalist with an ambition to salvage least- developing countries from the potential wrath of climate change. She has formerly been teaching at National Defence University Islamabad and PAF Air War College Institute Karachi. She can be contacted at drmusarat12@gmail.com

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