Dr. Rambhakta Thakur
Kathmandu, Nepal
Preview:
The fall of King Zaher Shah of Afganistan1 in a coup d’état in 1974 was the beginning of a revolution to establish Afghanistan Republic on national level.
Mohammad Daoud Khan seized power.
This political game gave a rise of the influence of the then Soviet Union who later invaded Afghanistan on December24,1979 under the pretext of upholding the Soviet–Afghan Friendship Treaty and to keep free the country from the clutches of the Islamic insurgents and Mujahidins.
But this could not last very long.
In 1989 February, the Soviet Union (USSR) was compelled to withdraw from Afghanistan and consequently a civil war abruptly protruded until the Taliban rose up against the country’s government and warlords, and established a theocratic regime (1996-2001).
Paradoxically, this regime also could not see long life and , as a result , in 2001 US finally invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban Government, and established ‘democracy’ to bring in to practice in Afghanistan with the help of European forces which further ironically collapsed in the hands of Taliban on August15, 2021.
Eventually, in a press conference, Taliban has renamed Afghanistan as ‘Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan’.
American Withdrawal and Onwards:
American decision to withdraw from Afghanistan had taken the world with a great surprise. For US, it was not a fait accompli in a diplomatic term, however, the new leadership of Joe Biden, president of US, had made a withdrawal speech defending his action as right time to end this war which hurt many who had strong belief on the power and words of US.
Similarly, the people of Afghanistan felt betrayed and thus helpless in the fear of atrocity of Taliban on the pretext of Sharia-Law. American action was taken as changing a paradigm ending an era of ‘military operations to remake other countries’2. International forces involved there also followed the decision of America.
The change of regime in Afghanistan has got a catastrophic effects particularly in the neighboring countries.
Neighboring country India was badly shocked who has so much invested in Afghanistan in the fields of education, infrastructure, trade, industry and human resources.
India also executed large projects like: Zaranj – Dolaram road connecting Iran; with the Kandahar -Herat highway; the Pule – Khumri power line over the Salang Pass that even today carries Uzbek electricity to Kabul; and many more including construction of the Afghanistan Parliament.3
On the other side, in Pakistan, the atmosphere was different.
They celebrated the second return of Taliban and demonstrated as if this is their own victory.
In the diplomatic dynamics of Indian external relations, the second return to power of Taliban in Kabul is a plateful of problems.
The biggest being it needs to be prepared for Pakistani military – ISI complex using the situation in Afghanistan to step up anti-India terror activities.
So far as India’s role in a new Afghanistan is concerned, its strategic gurus appear to be clueless.
There is no blue print or integrated road map to deal with the China – Pakistan challenge to India’s strategic investment in Afghanistan. India is now sidelined on the emerging future of Afghanistan, affecting in free access to Central Asia through the Afghanistan border.
Assessing a terrorist threat from Afghanistan, India, using its presidency in the United Nations has adopted a resolution calling for Afghan territory not to be used to shelter terrorists.
Interestingly, while mentioning support to Muslim of all over the world including Jammu and Kashmir, Taliban has skipped mentioning of Xinjiang and Chechnya, both sites of alleged atrocities on Muslim is believed to be more political in nature. China and Russia have come out in recent months to support the Taliban.
China and Russia worked together in the UNSC recent days as they jointly abstained on Resolution 2593.
Both countries objected to the non-inclusion of IS and ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) of the Uighur in the resolution. China and Russia both are determined to influence the Taliban regime to keep promise on preventing terrorism and drug trafficking.
Apart from that, US, World Bank, and IMF have threatened Taliban not to abuse human rights, service to women and girls, education and social freedom.
Taliban had promised in the beginning of taking power time not to misuse the power against civil freedom of women and girls and also agreed to adopt an inclusive government in modern Afghanistan.
But under the hard pressure of hardliners Muslim leaders, the promises was reneged in the later days.
During the course of these developments, the European Union has also been waiting with billion dollars assistance in return of application of reforms in the direction of Universal Human Rights by Taliban which is yet to be materialized.
Reluctance of complying with the world expectations makes the immediate recognition of Taliban Regime is in a question.
US, Russia and China have stressed in many occasions that ‘this is an interim government ….it can’t be really called representative or inclusive’.4
But, whatever are the changed circumstances, China has a fair chance to establish geostrategic footholds in the new Taliban –led Afghanistan.
The new Taliban regime also termed ‘China its most important partner’ for aid, investment and infrastructure projects.
Thus seems, China is in a better position today the role of a game changer.
UN Action and Humanitarian Assistance:
When sovereignty of a nation stands with vital importance in a troubled-nation then humanitarian intervention assistances have been found questionable many times in the recent past history of the world. In Iraq (Kurd), Yugoslavia or Somalia; the humanitarian interventions under the UN umbrella could not gather much applauses.
There many purposes were uncertain and consequences were questionable.
This type of syndrome should not be raised in Taliban Afghanistan this time.
Thus just ‘humanitarian assistances’ has to be mobilized with a clear purpose in the prescribed limited domains.
The emphasis on the word ‘humanitarian’ has been a neutral corollary of the complete absence of a serious long term policy in respect of the target country.
With a clear objective and fixed time table of ‘humanitarian assistance’ thus has been acceptable in the disaster-faced country with which no one wants to quarrel.
Seeing the sensitiveness in UN activities and humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, the distribution of necessary relief materials like food, clothes, medicines, education materials etc. have to be channelized through the related agencies.
Covid-19 has also badly threatened the majority of the population; cold waves, starvation, child malnutrition, and environment degradation are the immediate dangers to be addressed as suggested by the Secretary General of the United Nations. In these circumstances, humanitarian assistance has strategically become must for saving the lives at any cost in Afghanistan where 17 million children are under malnutrition and 70% population are living below poverty line.
Against this vulnerable background, therefore, the Security Council unanimously approved a resolution stressing that Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers needs to establish an inclusive government with ‘the full, equal and meaningful participation of women and upholding the human rights’.
It also extended the current mandate of the United Nations; political mission in Afghanistan for six months and stressed ‘the important role that the United Nations will continue to play in promoting peace and stability in Afghanistan’5.
This new mandate is known as UNAMA, until March 17, 2022; giving members time to assess the actions of the Taliban government in the coming months. This has been occasionally practiced in 1990s as ‘second generation humanitarian enforcement and operations’ in Kurd, Somalia, Serbia, Lebanon and Haiti are the best examples where there humanitarian operations were channelized keeping the UN values alive within the humanitarian assistance principles.
Unfortunately, peoples of Afghanistan have been suffering today very badly without their faults.
Gross Domestic Products shrink to 20 percent. Government has even not enough money to pay the salaries of the employees.
Workers are under paid and unfed. In this case only one way is open either to take shelter or leave the country as refugee to other countries.
During the first Taliban regime arrival in power 1996 in Kabul, a big number of Afghani people had left the country and took refuge to many countries mainly in US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Pakistan, and India.
This time, UNHCR has alerted for the large flux of refugees. Worldwide refugees are registered about 20 million and the same numbers of displaced persons.
Besides the political stability and recognition of Afghanistan, the socio-economic appalling scenario urgently demands the UN to augment its humanitarian assistance efforts without further delay considering the collapse situation of the helpless people.
Learning from the past experiences, UN should also be careful in understanding that it cannot create peace but can only create an atmosphere of the country to be able to fight back with the adverse situation and bring the country back to the right track.
There is a similar example of Congo in 1960s where UN tried to help but Soviet had reversed its policy and opposed the authority of the UN. In any case, the UN should not become a military target.
‘Therefore, the UN could not create through peace- enforcement what did not already exist; a willingness on the part of the warring parties to negotiate for peace’6.
Nepal’s Role:
At present, Nepal is the chair of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Being the leader of the South Asia, it must take an initiative of helping the international community to accept the fait accompli of Taliban victory at the one hand, while pressing the hardliner Muslim Taliban to accept the values of pluralism and multilateralism on the other.
But first, Nepal should evacuate 5000-10000 Nepalese withheld in Afghanistan. Many have been returned yet many waiting to come.
Nepal has also received some hundred Afghan refugees coming to Nepal mostly via India and Bangladesh that has to be managed with the help of UNHCR.
There may be terrorists in disguised forms that need to be very carefully handled because of the proximity with India.
Though, Nepal has taken a neutral position as a situation is very fragile, however, in the press releases of ministers of Foreign Affairs, “Nepal has urged all parties concerned to ensure the safety, security, and well-being of the people.
Nepal broadly supports the call from the international communities to respect and facilitate the safe and orderly departure of all those who wish to leave the country through roads, airports, or border crossing and call upon those in a position to do so for the protection of human life and property and maintenance of peace, order and stability.
Nepal wishes to see a lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan, a fellow member of SAARC, and the continued progress and prosperity of the friendly people of Afghanistan “.7
SAARC members India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are taking part in the UN and EU initiated dialogue for providing humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan and extending essential supports for meeting the basic needs of Afghan people.
In this context of mounting international pressure and needs of the hour, Nepal, as chair of SAARC, should try to play a felicitator role at this critical time to bring back Afghanistan in to the SAARC fold without being influenced by India, China, Pakistan, Saudi or western countries interests there.
China and Russia have already made their moves to establish relations with Taliban government.
New Delhi has been stung by Ashraf Ghani’s downfall, given their steadfast support for him while it is also reported rejoicing in Islamabad.
US has already announced $144 million in humanitarian aid for the people of Afghanistan. Similarly G20 agreed to aid to avert Afghanistan humanitarian crisis without recognizing the government.
In this scenario, Nepal must take a proactive diplomatic approach and use its bilateral relations to usher a new peace initiative in the region.
At this difficult period, best option is left for Nepal is to send immediately humanitarian assistance materials by airplane or financial help as a token of friendship within the framework of SAARC and international humanitarian obligations.
This is a fair opportunity for Nepal to demonstrate its ability and skill by applying diplomatic maneuvers in Afghanistan in order to bring peace by creating an inclusive society and respect for the universal human rights especially to women and girls.
On top of that should also keep in mind that Taliban – led Afghanistan must not use its territory for export of terrorism and permit its place for the shelter of terrorist in any form.
Further, an envoy could be sent to take the stock of the situation and to be a help for felicitators. Although, Nepal has not much direct trade, investment and tourism business with Afghanistan but the efforts of establishing a respect for universal order could change the socio-economic scenario there undoubtedly.
Conclusion:
The withdrawal of American and international forces from Afghanistan was messy, hit by terror and tragic, especially for Afghani people.
Not only for Afghani people but the neighboring countries and many others far located found the withdrawal behaviour of U.S. from Afghanistan is irresponsible.
Newspapers and intellectuals of this region have raised their eye brow and termed the withdrawal of America losing its face and credibility.
China and India are shocked particularly because they have heavily invested in that country in the hope of political stability backed by the American security.
The South Asian Security balance has been disturbed and all stakeholders are in confusion as to the future actions and their protection.
Russia, India, China are worried for their territorial security reasons.
In Afghanistan itself, brutality on women, girls and other ethnic groups are found deplorable.
Economically, Afghanistan has reached at the level of a failed stage which needs a magnanimous help to reactivate the economy and fighting with the climate change, cold waves and Covid-19. Starvation is at alarming stage and that if not addressed at this critical period of time then it may become a cause of million deaths of infants and minor population.
USA, EU and others are standing harsh with the Taliban-led government who has brutally rundown all measures of human rights and democracy.
Aid, investment and financial assistances all are stopped and billions of dollars of Afghanistan deposited to foreign capital are frozen.
Economic sanctions are applied to force the Taliban government to bring reform in the country according to the new world order.
Except Russia, China and Turkey, all other embassies are closed.
Taliban government is facing a sort of embargo for not accepting the basic human rights and democracy in the country.
But it has not forbidden the humanitarian assistance; it has to be continued so that the people of Afghanistan should not be deprived from these basic rights of saving their lives.
UN has to play a bridging role by assisting the humanitarian assistance at the same time making the country capable to start its economic activities.
But, unfortunately, the motion of cooperation and humanitarian aid are not taking place in the anticipated speed because there is trust deficit which hampers the international cooperation.
It should never forget that UN intervention has no role there that would become a military target for UN. This point should keep in mind very carefully in the present context of Afghanistan.
With respect to Nepal, having recognized the international concerns, it must not miss this opportunity of playing a leading role as SAARC leader.
Nepal should not make any delay in providing humanitarian assistance in the form of cash and kinds to this member state of SAARC to manifest its solidarity and brotherhood.
Foreign minister of Nepal should visit Kabul to take stock of situation or at least a special mission should go there with UN assistance to provide necessary humanitarian aids and also, if possible, to help in initiating a dialogue or playing a role of felicitator. A confidence has to be expressed and built-up at the particular juncture.
But, more serious fact is that the ball is in the court of Afghan Taliban leaders – now, Taliban has a crucial role to play in carrying out the duties of a responsible nation according to the principles of the United Nations.
Respect for human rights, including rights of women and girls, will win its respect internationally and for Afghan people.
Inclusive government and respect of way of life is priority for Taliban government.
Further, corruption has been a serious issue which eroded the previous government’s legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Good governance and effective delivery of basic services could therefore instill trust in the new government and reinforce its mandate.
This includes the government’s attention to former refugees and other returned migrants whose reintegration will be critical for Afghanistan’s future.
Therefore, it would be better for the Afghan government to fulfill and accept the Universal Human Rights and democracy to be internationally acceptable for getting their legitimate place in the United Nations.
Hopefully, Afghanistan will go for afresh free and fair election so that peace and stability in Afghanistan may prevail and a balanced regional security order would be re-established without further violence in a complete harmony of SAARC peace order.
# Dr. Rambhakta Thakur has already served as Nepal’s Ambassador to Egypt: Ed. Upadhyaya.
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Note of References:
1. Area 652, 860 Km2, Population 38.93 million (2020), GDP $19.81 billion (2020)
2. American President Joe Biden withdrawal speech on15 th August 2021.
3. Amb Jayant Prasad, Times of India, September 1, 2021
4. Video conference in Shanghai Corporation Organization about Afghan recent development
5. UNSC meeting on Afghanistan October 2021
6. Kim Holmes: The United Nations should play a limited role in intervention (interventionism PP.163)
7. Press release of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nepal, on 17th August 2021.