Kathmandu: Let’s presume for the sake of convenience that China has already made its grand “inroads” in Nepal more so in Nepali politics. China wants now to remain in Nepal for all time to come.

China’s entrance or say penetration are either an invited ones or at best the country in the North has secured its desired place for itself without the permission of the Nepali side.

China copies the Indian style.

By and large, China is to stay here for long time to come as would be evident from the recent speeches made by the Chinese Ambassador, Quo Guohang, posted in Kathmandu or the “messages” being aired from Beijing by none less than the Chinese President, Hu Jin Tao, as regards Nepal.

China is in an assertive mood now, political analysts presume thus.

Let’s look what the Chinese President and some other key Chinese officials said of Nepal October 16, 2009, while meeting the Nepali RED leader, Prachanda, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, in China.

Above all, Hu Jin Tao spent some good two hours with Maoist leader Prachanda wherein they both watched the sport events seated close to each other. This much time the Chinese President can’t even afford to provide Barak Obama. But Prachanda and Hu sat together and at regular intervals talked with each other. This is no less an achievement for Nepal’s RED leader.

“China favours stable force in Nepal”

“Prachanda and Hu Jin Tao watched a sporting event together, for over two hours”.

“President Hu Jin Tao assured that “China wishes to support Nepal further”.

“The two leaders also discussed ways to enhance ties between the two communist parties”.

“The leaders also analyzed the overall political situation in South Asia”.

“China is in favour of a stable force in Nepal”.

Aren’t these frightening expressions for the Nepali Indo-pendent leaders in “general” and the Indian regime in particular? Perhaps yes!

A close look at what President Hu told Prachanda does tell that China is in the search of a firm and stable Partner/Force-in Nepal through the use of which it-China-either wants to penetrate further in Nepali politics or at best it wants to use the stable force to counter anti-China activities being conducted from the Nepali soil.

By extension, it could also be deduced that China wants to secure its “grand” presence in Nepal to keep an “eye” on the entire South Asian region.

Who could fathom the Chinese “quiet diplomacy” that they practice more often than not?

Logically, President Hu wants to tame or say extensively use the Nepal Maoists in his country’s favour until he gets a reliable “force” in Nepal, however, since the Maoists spent some good eight years plus in New Delhi enjoying the Indian care plus protection and thus China still suspects the very RED credentials of the Nepal Maoists.

Sounds interesting which is tentatively backed by logic.

High placed sources authentically claim that China’s search for a stable partner/friend in Nepal is in progress.

Needless to say, Prachanda might have tried to appease Chinese President by stating that they could be the best partner for China in Nepal; however, the Chinese regime is yet to count upon the Maoists fearing that the Maoists may “leak” their conversations with them to its arch rival in the South as it happened last year August, 2008, at time of the Beijing Olympics.

( One high level government bureaucrat who had accompanied Prachanda to China and was with him while meeting President Hu Jin Tao, as is rumoured and later confirmed by Prachanda himself, straight went to Delhi and “leaked” the conversation to whom those awaited such information.). Certainly the “transaction” could have been in “lieu” of either free scholarship or hefty amounts.

Naughty Nepali bureaucrats! Moles abundant in Nepal bureaucracy more so in Nepal’s foreign ministry.

Yet, President Hu have had some minutes’  “secret talks” with Comrade Prachanda on October 16, 2009.

This is significant and unusual as well which is thus sufficient enough to send spine chilling waves in the vertebral columns of the South Block mandarins in Delhi. Hair pulling exercise must have begun in the South, hopefully.

High placed sources claim that President Hu enquired about the anti-China activities being conducted through the Nepalese soil. He also urged Prachanda not to allow such anti-China activities to happen from the Nepali soil. Prachanda apparently assured the Chinese President that he and his party would do the needful in checking such activities.

Look the twist seen of late in Nepal politics.

On October 10, 2009, the sitting but “election defeated” Nepal’s Prime Minister officially invited China in Nepal to support in the latter’s developmental activities and asked or say rather “sincerely appealed” the mighty Chinese side to link the Lhasa rail up to Kathmandu or at best bring it closer to the Nepal border in the North.

This does, to some, mean that “Communism from the North will Travel by Rail to Nepal”.

To recall, when late King Mahendra requested China in the early 1960s, to construct the KODARI Highway, the Indian Prime Minister got pretty annoyed with the King’s decision.

However, the late King is reported to have told India that “Communism doesn’t Travel by Taxi”.

Nehru got the point instantly and began seducing King Mahendra, analysts have been told by senior political observers.

As if this were not enough, the Chinese President Hu Jin Tao, exhibited his “keen” interest, October 16, 2009, in the Nepalese “peace process” indicating that China would be more than willing to help support Nepal to successfully complete its overly stretched peace process.

Prachanda, October 20, 2009 afternoon at a Tea reception organised by his party in Kathmandu, confirmed this Chinese interest. “China wants to establish peace in Nepal”, is how Prachanda made the Chinese pristine intention clear to all and sundry.

Things have dangerously begun rolling much to the chagrin of the “traditional neighbour” in the South. The Dragon has awakened from deep slumber.

More so the Chinese interest in locating/searching one firm and stable partner in Nepal is highly significant and by extension a matter of yet another headache for New Delhi and beyond.

New Delhi is advised to tighten its belt. No free ride now.

It could be a matter of sheer coincidence but the fact is that while President Hu Jin Tao was seducing Comrade Prachanda in his territory, back in Nepal the same day afternoon, October 16, 2009, the residential Chinese Ambassador, Quo Guohang, was close to the Indian border in Jhapa (Jhapa district adjoins the Indian border in the East) making lectures on how the China Study Centres could prove beneficial in cementing the ties in between Nepal, India and China.

He was asking and hoping the absurd. How can a centre that is dedicated and funded to enhance Nepal-China friendship could attach importance to its efforts in enhancing China-India ties?

But the Chinese envoy hoped this stating that such a triangular relation will ultimately be in the overall interest and for the stability of the entire South Asian region.

Hoping against hope or a subtle message to India that the Chinese too can approach the Indian borders!

(Based on a report that we received from Jhapa. If incorrect, the Chinese embassy is hereby requested to correct it).

The Chinese envoy almost touched the Indian border apparently in retaliation to the Indian envoy, Rakesh Sood’s mis-adventure, if it were at all, that he recently exhibited by visiting Mustang that adjoins the sensitive Chinese autonomous region on the other side of the Himalayas.

Could be a tit for tat exercise.

All in all, China has already entered into Nepali politics. Since official invitation is attached with thus it will come in a much more open manner in the days ahead.

It should be in this light the fresh trip made by Surya Bahadur Thapa and Sher Bahadur Deuba to New Delhi should be taken. The two BAHADURS were freshly in Delhi.

Both Thapa and Deuba are taken as declared India men and thus may have come back to Kathmandu with Indian instructions on how to chase the Chinese away from Kathmandu politics.

But could the Dragon that is already inside the Nepali territory be chased as per the wishes of the Indian establishment? Forget it!

However, one thing haunts the minds of the analysts in Nepal. Will China so easily and comfortably trust the Nepali Maoists with their, read Maoist’s- extensive and intensive India connection?

Can the Maoists be taken as Stable Force in Nepal as desired by the Chinese President?

These are some highly significant questions that demand adequate time.  The question is also will the Chinese regime afford to tease the Indian establishment by siding with the ones who basically resided in New Delhi for all along the people’s War?

KASHMIR is an independent country, claims China of late. This has some meaning underneath. Should this mean that China has begun teasing India?

Ask the bearer where the shoe pinches.

Keep your fingers crossed. Any way, the days ahead will be a testing time for Nepal as a nation-state.

Comments (14)

First of all, i want to declear that kale is very passimistic to in neoal.he think that it is easily success in nepal.but it is very dreadful situation to you and your country.

Commented by sahadev chaudhary - November 19, 2009 @ 2:42 AM

thanx again rajk, and thats what exactly i am talking about, to let china and india serve their interest from Nepal, Nepal can choose, what to ask for, from them.IN a bid to take nepal in their favour, we can use them for nepal's benefit. thats what i am saying, a good intellect can do it....we need such a leader!!

Commented by mahesh gautam - November 9, 2009 @ 5:13 AM

Manish,it is Nepal which has to decide what level of relations it seeks with its neighbours.The benefits and the price are up to it.The only thing you must remember is the ALL countries, including china will only seek to serve their own interests first.China is keen on Nepal first and foremost to counter India, NEVER forget that.Rest is up to you.

Commented by rajk - November 4, 2009 @ 2:43 AM

thanx rajk, emotions dominate facts, history shows allies being made for a common enemy, an uncomfortable neighbour. UNtil now we were just compelled and had no other choice, now there is a good gesture from china. until now we have acted like a pseudo indian state,now we can act like an independent country..if china is used tactfully against india, saving our soveirgnity..

Commented by mahesh gautam - October 30, 2009 @ 9:53 AM

In fact, we Nepalese do not have so many characters of a sovereign citizens and Nepal herself do not have character of Nepal. She is just behaving like pseudo state of India. And now RED effect is to be pseudo state of China. Which is more disaster than what is with India. I do not see any nationalist leader in fact. I do not have any proud to be a Nepali.

Commented by Prabhu - October 29, 2009 @ 11:33 PM

Mahesh,the 'south asian countries' to suurround India at the behest of China have their own intersts and compulsions.These countries would be Nepal, Mynamar, Sri-Lanka and Bangaldesh.Pakistan I have left out since Pakistan in any case is anti-india for historical/ideological raesons and India has extensive defence preparations against them.Crucially there is the logic of geography.How much do these countries share a common border with China and how much with India, what is their distance from China and India.Sri Lanka is furtherst from china and it has no common Borders with China.India is a vital point for supply of Raw materials and petroleum to sri-lanka.Nobody can supply cheaper to sri-lanka than India, since it is closest to it.There is no way that Sri-Lanka can act as a chinese stooge against India without great loss to itself.China is thousands and thousands of Km away from Sri-lanka.Any perceived gain from an open alliance china would be far outweighed by the loss of good relations with India.Besides with the LTTE gone Inda-srilanka have very little problems left. Reagard Mynmar and Bangladesh.Firstly mynmar and bangladesh have major problems between themselves.Mynamar,recives lot of diplomatic and other support from India.While Mynmar support of China is extensive, Mynmar army rulers value Indian support greatly as it comes from an important democracy and at immediate neighbour.Mynamr's policies till date have rarely been against Indian interests.India's close proximity, economic support makes an open hostilty untenable.Bangaldesh is surrounded by India almost totally, save a bit with mynmar.India is a very large market for bangladeshi goods.Also raw material supply from India is cheapest, since India is the closest neighbour.Bangladesh while showing a China tilt, will find it quite difficult to openly ally with China, without great cost to itself.Regards, Nepal, i have already stated the reasons in a prior comment.The bottom line is that neighbours are permanent, whether one likes or dislikes them, one has to find a way to live with them.

Commented by rajk - October 27, 2009 @ 5:22 AM

Nicely analysed! A good intellect can counteract the china and india's lust and put Nepal at a better place. Both want Nepal's support and politically speaking the parties are also well divided.Unless its a threat to Nepal's soveignity, we can welcome china for Nepal's wellbeing, and keeping India at their place. Nepal is having enough of India from quite a long. From one sided treaties to border encroachment and economic blockades..Its time to make India lern a lesson, non of the south asian country like India's aggressive foreign policy. I see a chinese policy o f encircling India through the south asian countries and keep India in its grip for th coming years..

Commented by mahesh gautam - October 25, 2009 @ 4:37 AM

slave buster,no problem.Just stop your leaders who flock to India as if its their second home.Ask them to gain some self respect.National pride can only be earned.

Commented by rajk - October 24, 2009 @ 5:43 PM

attention mr. kaley! you appear to have begun feeling bored by upadhyaya's article and stories. don't read his stories if it pains you but he is writing on behalf of nepal! got the point. find another website that praises hegemon-india. you are free in your choice. we encourage upadhyaya to write some thing more on the latest developments caring little what Kaley says. regards to upadhyaya-the true nationalist.

Commented by prakash thapa, in nepal now - October 24, 2009 @ 11:00 AM

To Kale: I don't think a half swallowed frog would have pity for the swallowing snake's pain.... To rajk: I rather accept hardship, but not hegemony on my nation's integrity. The fact is that, we Nepali should be learning to stand on our own feet rather than taking shelter under crocodile's jaw.

Commented by slave buster - October 23, 2009 @ 11:53 PM

Kale, the pain and damage ultimately will be caused only to Nepal.China and India are large countries, with multifarious options before them.Both have their tensions with each other, but, they also work together. For example,India and china are working together on climate change protocols.It is India and China together that are resisting the developed world from imposing restrictions on developing economies in the name of global warming.India china have trade relations in excess of 50 Billion $.That is several times the GDP of Nepal. China has increased its influence on Nepal.But its not as if India does not have her strengths.One of the biggest, is the commonality of culture, ethnicity and the open border.Lot is made of India misusing it.But people seem to ignore the millions of Nepalis who benefit from it.They are free to live and work in India without any permit, passport.So many have relatives in India and vice versa.Will China ever give such access to Nepalis.Doubt it! If Nepal tries to play off china against India, the damage to India will be far less than that caused to Nepal. There is no way that china can change geography.There are several factors that make it just not possible for Nepal to only rely on a china route.The High altitude, climate, terrain make the route difficult and definitely more expensive than the flat plains on the Indian side.Will Nepal be prepared to get her raw materials from the Chinese side at a greater cost, when on this side people only need walk across. And i am sure that the Nepalis are not eager that their country becomes a part or a place where India and china decide to fight it out.The damage will be felt greatest by Nepal.

Commented by rajk - October 21, 2009 @ 3:55 PM

Some one is pulling the hair of a sleeping lion-(read dragon)for your convinence

Commented by Yes kumar - October 21, 2009 @ 11:18 AM

dear freind kale! you are wrong. the paper writes as per the political events unfold but not to please you or some one else. the story talks of the recent visit of prachanda's trip to china. this is top news. if you feel sorry for india then nothing could be done. the writer has provided details of how china is entering nepal. though painful one for you but china can not be dismissed.

Commented by gorey, currently in kathmandu - October 21, 2009 @ 10:11 AM

last three to four articles by the author are verbatim same. great agony in the heart of the author towards India. His only intention is to give deep pain to india. next week pls pls write somehting else i will never read your article

Commented by kale - October 21, 2009 @ 8:05 AM

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