Kathmandu: Nepal as a nation-state has very calculatedly entered into an era that is to be henceforth dominated by the REDS.

The two major REDS, read the Maoists and the UML, if go on board together compromising on critical issues in a friendly manner, the coalition can continue for decades and decades.

But the question is whether the REDS who have a habit of being at each other's throats on even petty issues could prolong their “intimacy” for the broader interest of the Communist alliance?

The power struggle has already begun in between the two major constituent, the Maoists and the UML over the “allocation” of key portfolios. Hopefully, if the wrangling over sharing of the power-booty takes an ugly shape the bonhomie in between the two REDS will disintegrate like the house of cards.

In addition, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum which has emerged as the key player in Nepali politics possesses the potential to swing the two communist veterans, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Jhal Nath Khanal in a way as desired by the Forum managers.

As of writing this story Tuesday afternoon, the parties in coalition- the UML, the Maoists and the MJF- were fighting with each other over ministerial berths.

Analysts presume that the current bickering will continue to irk this alliances in the days to come if one were to take into account the “characters and the habits” of Nepali parties when it came to the power distribution scheme.

The Delhi formula:

It has been exactly thirty three months of the signing of the most (in) famous Delhi sponsored and “prearranged” peace agreement that facilitated the Maoists to assume power in Nepal.

Intelligent brains thus are advised to mull over as to whether the Maoists brought the then agitating liberals to their sphere of political influence or vice versa upon signing the New Delhi engineered agreement that was so scrupulously signed by the then seven parties in alliance against the Royal regime?

With the Maoists coming to power, what has come to the fore is that the New Delhi establishment first wanted to do away with the Royal institution, which it did successfully, and then preferred the entire Nepali Congress paraphernalia to vanish in the ethereal medium which is what has been the case since August 15, 2008.

Thus if the Institution of the monarchy was forced to say good bye to the nation after thirty one months of signing the Delhi agreement then the party of the so called liberals, the Nepali Congress, too tentatively has decayed after thirty three months of the said agreement. Some even say that with Koirala going out of the country’s political scene, his legacy too has come to an end once and for all. Poor Sujata Koirala.

The Indian gift:

What else could be a best gift to the Nepali Congress that the party that ran under the dictatorial whims and the diktats of the Koiralas’ and also remained as a “servant of the Indian establishment” since its inception some six decades back was defeated by the Maoists on a very special day for the Nepali Congress-15^th August which coincidentally is the day when the Indians gained independence from their former British masters.

To recall, last week on Friday, 15 August, Prime Minister Koirala was ousted democratically by none less than the Maoist leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and thus this special date will be remembered by both Koirala and Mr. Dahal. The first for his ouster and the second one for his elevation as the country’s Prime Minister. This date has symbolic importance.

The US prophecy:

No wonder then the United States Ambassador James F. Moriarty had said February 15, 2006 had said at a Kathmandu gathering that he saw the India sponsored agreement singed on November 22, 2005 as a design of the Maoists to bring the democratic parties then in agitation into their sphere of political influence. With Pushpa Kamal Dahal bouncing to the power corridors of Nepal well within thirty months of the 2005 agreement in many more ways than one proves that the US Ambassador’s prediction made then was more than correct.

Uphill tasks ahead:

Having said this, analysts wish to dwell upon the Himalayan odd jobs that lay ahead of the former rebel leader who has assumed the post of the country’s Prime Minister.

Firstly, how Prachanda when twisted by the Indian establishment escapes unharmed will have to be watched. It is hoped that the Indian authorities who have had provided shelter and other logistics to the Maoists while being in New Delhi and had also encouraged the latter to wage a sort of fierce struggle with the King will hundred percent ask for the repayment both in cash and kind from the Maoists.

No free luncheon in the diplomacy and thus no wonder that the Saturn like southern neighbor has already sent its special emissaries to sound to the Maoists leader turned Nepal’s Prime Minister that he has to pay now. These uninvited Indian luminaries were located at the swearing in ceremony of Nepal’s new prime Minister Monday afternoon. The Indian national are here to “congratulate” Nepal’s new prime Minister. The Indian tamasha.

Yechuri factor:

Nepal’s real Indian mentor, Sita Ram Yechuri is soon to land in Kathmandu. He will do so under the pretext of congratulating Prime Minister of Nepal. Though this would be just a cover for his “dangerous” visit to Nepal, he is coming to Nepal, say analysts, to press Pushpa Kamal Dahal to offer more Hydro Projects to India and that too at a dirt cheap price. Needless to say Yechuri was the one who managed the “camaraderie” of the Maoists with the Sonia’s government in New Delhi. Analysts remain determined that though Yechuri is a friend of Prachanda but then yet from heart and soul he is an Indian national and thus he would ask free advantages for his country from Nepal’s Prime Minister. Failing to pay back, Yechuri might bring about calamity to the entire Maoist paraphernalia.

The Yechuri factor is sure to dilute the nationalist credentials of the Maoists in the days ahead. Yechuri is right when he asks the repayment of all what he did for the Maoists while they were in NOIDA, New Delhi via Nepali Jungles. But what the new Maoist led government will provide to the Indian establishment will have to be watched?

To recall, Yechuri is the son-in-law of D.R. Joshi. Mr. Joshi is a high level functionary of the Indian intelligence agency.

To boot, former Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula too is the son-in-law of the same RAW official and thus Sitaula and Yechuri are brothers by law. Thus Yechuri’s friendship with Prachanda smells rat.

The RAW connection:

 By now it has already been established that the Maoists are fair “intimacy” with the Indian Intelligence agency-RAW. At time of the presidential election, it was in the rumor that the Maoists preferred the candidacy of the legendary republican leader Ram Raja Prasad Singh under the instructions of the RAW.

Media reports have it that the RAW Kathmandu manager Mr. Alok Joshi’s sphere of political influence in the Maoists camp is all pervasive and binding as well. No wonder then at a recent Central Committee meeting of the Maoists held in Kathmandu the Maoists leader Mohan Vaidya alias KIRAN bluntly said that his party was experiencing the “hurricane” from the South on a regular basis and that some of “our friends” deliberately open the “windows” to allow the Southern wind to enter into their room.

Mr. KIRAN is considered as a hardliner in the Maoist camp.

No wonder then many a Maoists CC members now conclude that the party of the ex-rebels is inching towards the South.

Unsubstantiated reports have it that the Maoists camp is currently divided into two distinct groups: the first comprises of those members who want to liberate Nepal from the clutches of the Indian establishment. The other understandably is of the opinion that Nepal can’t proceed towards the path of development without the support of expansionist India. 

How PM Mr. Dahal brings out the country and his party from the firm grips of Monsieur Alok Joshi will be no less interesting event to observe.

Prachanda’s quandary:

Pushpa Kamal Dahal has assumed the post of the PM of Nepal at a time when the country is on the verge of collapse.

This apart, he will have an uphill task to keep his high ranking party members united or else the party can explode with a big bang any time soon.

The Indian factor will boggle the mind of the new Prime Minister. Even a slight mistake on the part of Mr. Dahal while “dealing” with the expansionist neighbor will instantly oxidize his nationalist credentials that would allow the intellectuals to equate him with the power hungry and declared India’s servant, Koirala, which he was by all means.

How he proceeds in the days ahead will be worth watching. No less interesting would be his impending dealing with the leech like Indian nationals of the sorts of Yechuri, Bhadauria, Tripathi and the daddy of them all, Mr. Shyam Saran-the master destructive brain who ultimately wants Nepal broken into pieces. His efforts in this regards are on through his “salaried” stooges in Nepal, rumors claim.

If Saran is denied what he wants from Prachanda then what is for sure is that the latter’s days will be numbered in the government structure.  

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