Peace Process in Nepal: Assumptions and Speculation

Dr. Sushil R. Pandey

Assumptions

Statistics can be deceiving. Small conflicts can really look big and big conflicts really small, depending on focus /or interpretation.  How one draws the analysis of Nepal's ongoing conflict and its impact on the peace process the conclusions derived from sample events are often based on probabilities, true or not true of the observation. Not all dimensions can be known and there is always the element of surprise in politics, more so for Nepali politics which has generally been in a state of high fluidity and confusion since 1990 Jana Andolan.

The decade-old Maoist insurgency (1996) that ended in a Comprehensive Peace Accord (21 Nov, 2006) is a unique piece of political exercise. What subsists today, in the aftermath of Peace Accord, is the prevalence of intense power struggle among political actors of various hues in order to gain influence in the country's affairs. Ashanti persists on a wide scale in different magnitude than during the pre-Accord state of armed conflicts. The stakes are high for all political parties in the upcoming Constituent Assembly (CA) election (Nov 22, 2007), if at all it is held, and how the peace process will traverse thereafter is a question mark without any clues. Will there be peace in Nepal? This is a million dollar question.

The media today are full of speculations and, by the weeks, scores of contradictory political speeches are reported which take their own course hidden in deception and lies. There is much uncertainty of direction the country is likely to take before and after the CA. election. Many queries float around in public and very few are optimistic about peaceful Nepal. Will a new constitution be drafted in time or not? Will there be a free and fair CA election? Will the CPN-Maoist participate in the election? Will the Seven Party Alliance Government go for the election without the participation of the Maoists?  How will the new constitution represent various groups in society? What will be the role of the CPN-Maoist in the new scheme of things; if in the opposition, with dubious and untested electoral support? These questions are speculative. The road ahead for the peace process hints at political/constitutional crisis in making. Now that the Maoists have quit the government does raise serious questions on the legitimacy of the interim government and the road to peace. Vulnerable conditions are being created forcing the political process into more fragile situation. How the security situation will evolve directly depends on political stability, and vice versa. The upper-most issue hovering on the minds of the ordinary people at present is whether the CA election will ever be held, now that the Maoist ministers have resigned from the Government (1 + 7 party Government) and have openly declared to "disrupt" CA election. As to this date, less than two months remain for CA election and the political parties are not fully ready to go for it despite having been committed to it earlier when the accord was signed. There is much wheeling and dealing for CA seats, similar to the division of shares (bhagbanda) in appointments for various public posts as speculated by major media instruments. If so, the entire election will be a farce, eyewash for the majority of silent voters who are not aligned to any particular political parties and the voting of this nature may not be the right barometer to debate the issue of republic. Referendum may have been the better alternative to such an exercise but this idea has been outright rejected by the Maoists and the Congress Party (Koirala) as, according to Mr. Koirala, would provide constituent space for the King. Of late, the joint Congress parties have endorsed the republican mode through a Mahasamitee without discussion with attending members and neither in the Central Committee.

Beyond this kind of skepticism is the alternative the Maoist Party has been pushing with 22-Point Demands on the Government as "pre-conditions" for CA election, two of which are the declaration of "republic" by the House of Representatives and holding the election on the basis of proportional system of representation. So far, several rounds of negotiations at Baluwatar (residence + office of PM) have failed to meet the demands of the Maoists, and various protest programs, including people's action against "reactionaries," have been launched.

Hence, given the present foggy situation, simple tools may not help to gauze Nepali politics.  A whole range of complex issues need to be tackled to understand Nepalese political behavior.  At this juncture, in my view, to conceive a rational model would be conjectural. How the Nepal case of peace building, peace keeping and peace process can be strengthened to achieve the desired goals of statecraft -- political stability, freedom, progress and prosperity -- is a big interrogative mark. The task of unraveling the stump in a culture of ambiguities exerts difficulties in acquiring a holistic perspective. Currently, there are innumerable demands from various minorities and regional groups on the incumbent government and the task ahead with the existing weak administration can be highly taxing nonetheless. There are also unknown external pressures from multiple sources on the political process.

To analyze the current politics simple method, therefore, may not suffice as there are wide variations in political commitment and actions of political leaders which do not fall in clear patterns of uniform behavior. Same is true in understanding the political parties, whether large or small, new or old, liberal or conservative, leftist or rightist, fundamentalist or democratic, republican or monarchist, nationalist and so on with other political labels. Often what is expressed is not translated in real terms and quick compromises are sometimes made for political convenience. The least expected becomes the new setting for ad-hoc measures. The subject of peace process indeed falls in this kind of pattern. Much caution is needed to analyze the association of multiple variables. For the purpose of discussion a few conceptual categories are picked to highlight some impressions and speculations. The larger issue of Peace (in capital) may remain illusive for sometime as it is clearly evident from other conflict-ridden developing societies that have been torn apart and have called UN mission to assist the peace process. Nepal is unlikely to be an exception. 

Thinking Ahead

The need for peace "through forward looking outlet," as the document of 12-point understanding (22 November, 2005) emphasized, was for "full democracy" by employing all possible instruments of "state restructuring of the state" and "ending" the "autocratic monarchy" in order to address issues of class, cast, gender, region and other matters of social, economic, political, and cultural fields.

The Maoists who entered into mainstream interim coalition government of parliamentary parties have emphatically pushed the idea of republic and gradually tarnished the status and image of the monarchy piece by piece.  It was able to get a Second Amendment to the Interim Constitution that two-third majority decision of Parliament can abolish the monarchy. The "condition" for it strangely enough lies with the suspended King if he is "found conspiring" against the CA election. Then, there is also the provision that the fate of the monarchy would be decided by majority of elected CA members in the first meeting. Both propositions have different weight though not directly weighed on the people but through two sets of representatives. Hypothetically, the entire exercise of abolition can be connived by first taking the course through parliament sanction then extending the parliament for a longer period beyond Nov 22, 2007, the declared date for the CA election. When the seven parties all approve the republican idea the syndicate can work to dictate the course by hoodwinking the entire political process under abnormal period!

In the mean time there is much fascination of big powers to know the current Nepali politics and how the immediate future will unfold whether ending in civil war or peace. With emphasis on democracy, human rights, free market and globalization, the international community is exploring new opportunities of cooperation and friendship with new Nepal, a country well known for its martial tradition, scenic beauty and geo-strategic location situated between China and India. Already, large investments have poured in to give substance to the peace process.

As a word of caution, speculation is rife on the country's future and the undercurrent minority and regional issues are spreading tremors which if not understood correctly on time may further complicate the transformation of the existing liberal state. By most accounts, the ongoing political exercise is unique and adventuresome. What can be more baffling is the persistent effort of the Maoists to accomplish a federal republic with socialistic blend of capitalism. Against all odds, the myriad issues that have surfaced during the post- conflict transition pose direct challenge to the ongoing peace process. Simple solutions to emerging hydra-headed worms of social disunity and disharmony emanating from unprepared design for decentralization and devolution of power under the rubric of federal state; and without a strong centre, may not be able to cope with the challenges of state building. Some sociologists enjoy the terminology of "state restructuring" with ease as a model, as also conceived in the 12-Point Understanding. Essentially, the history of national struggle to preserve state independence and sovereignty is a rich glorious past, Nepal with the longest history of statehood in South Asia, has successfully safeguarded its freedom without succumbing to colonialism and subjugation when countries in the region were under colonial yoke. Nepal needs no lessons from anyone in the region or beyond. The nitty-gritty elements that went in making of Nepali state are not something to be forgotten and the tendency to overlook the past has negative implications on inter-ethnic bond, communal harmony, law and order, peace, stability, development, independence, and sovereignty. I believe revolutionary transformation over evolutionary change of society calls for prudence, of course, and not shock therapy; when strong leadership is not forthcoming to guide the nation and establish peace and political stability -- the two preconditions for development. The ongoing political experiment to change the face of the nation is the greatest test for political parties across the ideological divide (from Maoist/ Stalinist/ Leninist parties to rightwing/ conservative/ fundamentalist parties) which calls for long-term vision. Failing in these efforts and failing to achieve national unity means state collapse and not otherwise.

Finally, it may be said that the insurgency has had damaging impact on the functioning of government. The countryside today is an open field for Maoist influence, expansion and control. Several large conflicts (ethnic, religious, linguistic, regional, political, etc) have cropped up throughout the Terai belt, a weak underbelly of both Nepal and India, with extensive destruction of property, displacement of people, disappearance of people, and deaths. The road ahead is not simple. Greater vision is required to act globally and locally to meet the interests of the nation and the people.

Post your Comment here

TERMS OF USE:The views, opinions and comments posted are your, and are not endorsed by this website. You shall be solely responsible for the comment posted here. The website reserves the right to delete, reject, or otherwise remove any views, opinions and comments posted or part thereof. You shall ensure that the comment is not inflammatory, abusive, derogatory, defamatory &/or obscene, or contain pornographic matter and/or does not constitute hate mail, or violate privacy of any persons) or breach confidentiality or otherwise is illegal, immoral or contrary to public policy. Nor should it contain anything infringing copyright &/or intellectual property rights of any person(s).

• Name :         
• Email :          

Comment:


Security Code

• Enter the text above 

I agree