Politics & Climate Change

Niraj Aryal

Statistical/Mathematical Analysis

The intrinsic problem with Nepali politics is such that you never know when it was not fluid.

There may have been some brief period of solidness yet in the last five to six decades since Democracy first established, the county’s political climate remains ever sizzling. No ups and downs folks...it has been always stably unstable.

Mathematicians or let’s say statisticians, claim whenever situation remains standstill, the event draws less attention, i.e. it becomes predictable. If politics were stably unstable or predictably unpredictable no model would be required to predict what is to come next in Nepali politics. Because it has been always (emphasis added) unstable.

On the contrary, Nepali politics continues to draw huge international attention. Why?

Let us not forget the fact that Politics is no Wireless Communication where statistical or any other mathematical tools could be used to predict the signal strength.  If so, we could have easily predicted until how long Madhav Nepal continues to rule the roost, for example let’s say by 2012?

In the wireless communication, models could be developed, analyzing the random behavior of the signals, as a result we have fast mobile internet and various other applications.

But we can’t make a model out of Nepali politics or for that matter with various levels of impulses we get various levels of outputs. Thus we can not predict, for example Prachanda will head the government next by next week or at best until anxious Indian academics are assured that it will not have to fight China come year 2012. Hmmm!!

Climate Change

Our concern is why climate change in the past few years draws not enough international attention in Nepal, yet international actors of different colors are more concerned on setting a matching colorful political entity in the Kathmandu power corridors.

Visibly there is a trend in the Climate change.

Days are getting hotter and hotter during the summer, rainfall are measured less during the monsoon…winters are colder year by year.

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Climate change is now a major new concern for all of us. An overwhelming scientific consensus draws the conclusion that the global phenomenon of rising temperatures is largely the result of human activities. Urgent actions for adaptation and mitigation are, therefore, essential to contain the rise in temperature and to stop further degradation of the environment. Among the many impacts of climate change, melting glaciers and its attendant consequences are staring at us with alarm. This global problem requires a comprehensive and coordinated global response in the spirit of common but differentiated responsibility. In order to effectively deal with this and a number of other global problems of similar nature such as human trafficking, money laundering, drug trafficking, HIV/Aids, international terrorism, etc. the developing countries need additional and enhanced level of international support and assistance.

(Statement by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Nepal Sujata Koirala at the NAM Ministerial Meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, 13-14 July 2009. )

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