So many factors and forces have converged and have begun acting whose cumulative effect would perhaps be to push the CA poll dates further thus further creating chaos and uncertainty in the country.
To begin with, the party of the Royalists-the RPP-N to be precise, has after a sort of long hibernation has come to the streets. Albeit, the hibernation was a forced one for fear of being taken to task by the Maoists.
The manner the former Royalists now the liberals have come to the streets will expectedly encourage other liberal forces having bent for the preservation of the monarchial system in this country to come to the streets. If that does happen would mean that the liberals not in the current seven party alliances will heat the streets until they are assured of the continuation of the institution of the monarchy.
No wonder the former Panchas turned royalists turned liberals have chose to come to the surface at a time when in neighboring India, the Hindu fundamentalist party-the BJP-is gaining upper hands in that very country’s politics.
Needless to say, the BJP is a hardliner Hindu party which would not compromise any thing but the preservation of the monarchical institution in this country.
To recall, some BJP high ranking functionaries have already ventilated their utter displeasure over the declaration of the republican order in Nepal and have said that if Japan and United Kingdom can flourish under monarchy then why not Nepal?
They have also expressed their views that it was under the tremendous pressures from the Maoists that Koirala have had to declare a republican order in
The BJP factor would thus perhaps unite the entire liberals at time of the CA polls in order to save
To recall, the
It is in this backdrop has to be seen the floating rumor that the parties of the liberals, for example, the RPP, the RJP and the like minded ones would form soon a third force to match the formidable strength of the current seven party alliances.
No wonder if the BJP so desires then the entire liberals could join hands with the newly established Madheshi parties who too in one way or the other favor the continuation of the monarchy in this country.
To recall, Upendra Yadav is very close to the BJP leader, L.K.Advani and the latter would wish that Nepali monarchy remained intact at any cost and that if he makes even small hint to Yadav then what is for sure is that the entire Madheshi leaders would, even if they don’t like the idea, converge together and act as a political deterrent to the Maoists-the real threat to India which is how the Indian establishment sees the Nepali Maoists.
Thus what is for sure is that the fresh RPP coming into the
Time permitting, others will follow suit.
Needless to say, the Madheshi leaders want to see their part of the land free from the Maoists’ political clout. Their enemy so far, analysts presume, is first the Maoists plus the Pahade rulers who deny them their due rights as they claim.
Add to this, for the liberals not in the government, the Maoists too were their enemies for a variety of reasons-seen and unseen both.
And thus what comes to the fore is that neither
Thus unless the institution of the monarchy remains secured, these liberals under Indian blessings would perhaps play their role in pushing the CA poll dates further. The BJP factor appears to have become important in
Now let’s analyze as to why the Maoists would want yet another poll date.
Needless to say, the bombshell exploded by the chief of the Army Staff the other day is sufficient for the Maoists to demand for yet another postponement of the polls. The fact is that Katuwal’s blunt remarks made against the “indoctrinated” army’s possible merger into the national army has shattered the dreams of the Maoists top hats who had of late been assuring their shivering cadres in various cantonment sites that soon they would be assimilated into the mainstream army.
However, this is not forthcoming. Katuwal’s remarks caps the possibility of the merger of the two armies at least until the CA polls are held.
It would be this lame excuse that the Maoists will wish to cash, politically speaking.
In addition, the Maoists have been swept out in Terai and even in the Hills people have no reasons to exhibit their profound love and honor for the Maoists.
More importantly, Dr. Bhattarai has recently said that the election which the Maoists are sure to lose is meaningless for the Maoists.
Now let’s talk of the UML.
This party too has done no miracles that the laymen would die to vote for this party. More so, one of its Madheshi member has recently quit the party for good which would also have a negative impact on the vote bank of the UML more so in the Terai belt. The hard reality has been that no party headed by Pahade elite would bag votes from the Terai belt. Henceforth, the voting pattern would be, unfortunately, on a communal basis. This would apply for the Nepali Congress as well.
Coming to the Congress.
Well, the congress is internally divided-to be precise.
The division is due to the declaration of the republican order keeping the monarchy intact.
Insiders of the congress declare that half of the CC members of the party still favor the monarchy. And if pushed to the wall, these NC leaders might quit the party for good for sake of preservation of the institution. Rough estimates say that forty percent plus of the population still revere monarchy. What is more stunning is that about fifteen percent of the Maoists leaders including their cadres favor the institution.
In addition, the fresh unification of the NC party too has not brought about a substantial change in the mindset of the party leaders and its cadres from district to the village level.
For instance, Sher Bahadur Deuba is loitering in the country side with his former NC-Democratic soldiers. Deuba even has said that the party is yet to unite sentimentally. The manner Deuba is being treated by Koirala does indicate that Koirala still is a landlord in the Congress paraphernalia. Deuba has reasons to be annoyed. (The NC is embroiled in a fresh controversy which states that Dr. Shekhar Koirala was allocated a billion plus Indian currency by the RAW agency to encourage the agitators when King Gyanendra was ruling the country. Reports say that when Sujata went to seek monetary assistance, she was told by none less than Shila Dixit, the chief minister of the
To boot, the Madhesh is to burn once again come third week of January. The Madheshi leaders have declared that they will shake the entire country if their genuine demands were not met with prior to January 18.
Perhaps to signal their displeasure over the SPA dictatorship, some Madheshi factions Monday burnt the copies of the interim charter and the freshly signed 23 point agreements in between the State and the rest of the parties in alliances. This event took place in Birganj and in
The Madhesh and its leaders appear adamant not to settle for less than what they call an “autonomous federal structure”.
All put together, the chances is not that bright which would allow the polls to happen on time?
The UML leader, Madhav Kumar
At least Madhav
That would mean that Mr. Nepal will maneuver to discredit Koirala to the hilt so that the latter could not conduct the polls.
Summing up, the political scenario as it stands today is not that much encouraging which could be taken as an ear pleasing one.