Will US revise its Nepal policy?

TGW Analyst

Kathmandu: Though unstated and undeclared, the American administration appears to have concentrated its entire efforts on mainly two key points wherein it would wish the stated two points established.

Those two key points, opine analysts, rests upon the presumptions, for example, uniting the liberal and the democratic forces scattered in different political camps, and secondly to keep the communists, more so the Maoists at a comfortable distance.

Undeniably, the US appears to have got the point as to what it meant by the inclusion of the Maoists into the mainstream politics of the country.

The US too can’t escape the blame for having worked in “tandem” with the countries in Nepal “axis” around 2005 which in effect facilitated the Maoists entrance into the government structure.

It was a Delhi sponsored 12 point agreement which the then agitating seven party alliances signed with the Maoists right in Delhi which allowed the smooth entry of the Maoists into the country’s political scene. Needless to say, the efforts of the countries in the said axis-Delhi-Washington-London not only brought the down fall of the King’s regime but also paved the way for the Maoists to have a “bold and determined” say in the country’s politics.

Nevertheless, Ambassador Moriarty is on record to have denounced the 12 point pact saying that it was the Maoists who brought the SPA to their political sphere of influence contrary to what had been propagated by the SPA partners after the Delhi agreement.

Ambassador Moriarty, for example, though he fathomed in advanced that the SPA were inviting trouble not only for themselves but for the entire country as a whole then why he could not convince his friends in the “axis” not to encourage the Maoists and the SPA members to come together through the 12 point agreement.

Analysts very well remember that during the agreement period in Delhi, Ambassador Moriarty made several declared and undeclared trips to the Indian capital and is on record to have met the notorious Indian Foreign Secretary-Shyam Saran and discussed with him over the unfolding political events then in this country.

Question thus becomes pertinent as to when this innocent Ambassador knew every thing in advance then why he could, as a representative of the lone super power, not veto the entire game being played by London and Delhi which had only a single motive: unseating of the what they used to call the “autocratic monarch”?

Now that the monarch has been out of the political scene, the Maoists have certainly gained what they wanted. Clearly, the Maoists in the government structure have allowed them to impose their say in the cabinet. Add to this the Maoists new incarnation in the form of Young Communist League that has already become the synonym of terror and panic in the entire country whose reverberations could also be felt in the international media.

Clearly, the US Ambassador was ditched, cheated and deceived by his two friends in the axis. Ambassador Moriarty just wanted the King to step down. However, London and Delhi worked in tandem and very skillfully brought the Maoists into the government structure. Nevertheless, both London and Delhi must have come to their senses looking at the current political events that have unfolded of late more so after the YCL men dared to vandalize a UN car which was ferrying American Ambassador Moriarty last May 25 Friday in Damak, Jhapa district.

Nonetheless, London-Delhi-Washington managed peace in this country with the Maoists entrance into the mainstream politics. However, analysts say that the peace that has heralded in this country is a “negative” one. The second attack of the growing YCL activities would be India for sure. (Read in-depth analysis)

Be that as it may, now look at the chain of events.

Exactly after five days of such a YCL attack on its Kathmandu posted envoy, the US sent comparatively a high level functioning State authority to listen to the unfolding events in this country and apparently to sound the Nepal government that the US would not tolerate any more if such YCL vandalism continued in the future that targets the US authorities here.

The US Assistant Secretary Barry F. Lowenkron who just concluded his four day Nepal trip talking to press prior to his departure has said that “one can’t have ballots and bullets in a democratic process and that intimidation and violence have no roles whatsoever in the democratic process of any country”.

In saying so the US dignitary sounds that the US still views the Maoists and its YCL boys as trouble makers and that the US wanted the Maoists to behave that is demanded of them in a democratic system.

In addition, the US still believes that the Maoists have not abandoned the acts of intimidation, and violence even after joining the government structure.

“Nothing justifies the use of violence as a legitimate political tool”, concluded Barry.

All in all, the visiting US authority must have been briefed by his embassy colleagues about the nature and the feature of the YCL boys of the Maoists. More so Ambassador Moriarty must have told Secretary Barry in private as to how he felt when he was stoned by the YCL cadres in Damak.

Now that the Ambassador of the lone super power has been mentally tortured by the Maoists and their kids, how the US influences the country’s politics in the days ahead is any body’s guess. It is therefore no wonder that the ailing Prime Minister Monday described the YCL as Young Criminal League.

Perhaps this explains so many things unspoken. Perhaps Koirala’s stern warning to the Maoists is a message to the US that things must change and he will change the Maoists in the days ahead or else the ex-rebels will be taken to task. However, what is intriguing is that how Koirala will penalize the erratic Maoists? Neither he can expel the Maoists ministers from the cabinet nor he can check the increasing high handedness of the YCL outfit. For Home Minister Sitaula appears still sympathetic to the Maoists. So to expect that Koirala can tame the Maoists in a matter of days or even weeks appears a remote eventuality.

Yes! What is for sure is that Ambassador Moriarty will not settle for less. But how he proceeds with his political cards, if left any under his sleeve, to cut down the size of the Maoists will have to be watched. Nevertheless, this time he enjoys the backing of the entire diplomatic community who have very promptly denounced the YCL attacks on Ambassador Moriarty. The otherwise European Ambassadors who appeared less energetic in denouncing the Maoists not so in the distant past too have openly condemned the YCL erratic behavior. This adds to the strength of Ambassador Moriarty definitely. Will he then advise his administration to go in for a revision in the current US policy on Nepal? Who knows what is in store?

However, what is for guaranteed and taken for granted is that the erratic activities of the YCL and the Maoists’ combined is surely benefiting the now silent monarch though in a subtle manner. What is going to his pockets for free is also from the dismal performances of the EPA leaders being in the parliament and in government as well.

The more the leaders lose in the process would mean, by default indeed, a sort of windfall to the now sleeping monarch.

Politics is simply the art of the possible.

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