N. P. Upadhyaya
Kathmandu: Some hair-raising events took place around the time of Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s Nepal visit.
It was widely believed that DPM Bijaya Kumar Gachhedar will in his all honesty, which was expected of him as a Nepal minister, to brief his cabinet first about the details of the talks that he have had with the Chinese officials during his China trip, instead upon his return from Beijing, December 30, 2011, preferred the other way round and sneaked inside the Indian Embassy, the next day, December 31, 2011, and is learnt to have told the Indian Ambassador each and every minutiae, to which the Embassy officials were naturally interested in, which ultimately pleased Ambassador Jayant Prasad to the extent that he sent Minister Gachhedar to Delhi at the Embassy’s invitation. Embassy sends Nepal Minister to Delhi. Appalling diplomacy.
It is thus widely believed that the first hand information of Premier Wen’s approaching Nepal visit may have been “intentionally leaked” by the Nepali minister who had just arrived Kathmandu from Beijing for some known reasons.
Secondly, Premier Wen’s possible Nepal visit was also leaked in a beaming manner by the childish ( sorry to say) Chinese Ambassador, Yang Houlan, who made secret phone calls to some of his intimate “intellectual friends” which appeared on the internet the other minute. But yet the people at large benefited from his juvenile “diplomacy”. Good job indeed. Kudos.
Ambassador Houlan has proved for himself as a weak diplomat. Jayant’s “silent” diplomacy has worked comparatively speaking. Yang Houlan’s local “team” perhaps is a lousy one. Beijing must investigate. Earlier the better or else Chinese diplomatic debacle will begin right from Nepal and continue for long.
The weak Houlan team will sink Beijing in Kathmandu.
The Indo-US Axis has become out of the blue active with the fresh arrival of one Nepali minister from Delhi. Tease China idea imported.
Weak Beijing in Kathmandu is to confront Indo-US Axis. Forget it.
A high placed source has told this analyst that Wen’s short visit to Nepal may have been leaked itself by the Indian government when she was approached by the Chinese side demanding the right to fly over the Indian air space upon the completion of Nepal visits on his way to the Gulf countries. A universal practice in the conduct between nations.
The same source claims that the Indian foreign ministry instantly upon awarding the “air space” approval for Chinese Premier’s Aircraft sent this message to the Kathmandu based Indian embassy and the Indian task force in Nepal did what it had to thus the arrival and the departure of the Chinese dignitary to and from Nepal came to public. Interesting indeed.
Now back to our own politics.
The Nepali Congress and the UML which brought the Maoists from the NOIDA concrete jungles is feeling the brunt.
Some even curse late Koirala as to why he, while he was alive, brought the Maoists from NOIDA? However, these NC men do not understand (or deliberately prefer to hush-hush the matter) that Koirala was just a tool and he did what he had to as per the instructions from “above”.
Undoubtedly, the NC and the UML together with some fringe political parties have formed an alliance against the Maoists. Apparently such an alliance makes no difference to the Maoist’s grand strategy. At best, the Maoists will suffer much not from the formation of such a Front instead the Maoists are likely to collapse or will be made to break even by its own disgruntled academia, media men and some leaders whose loyalty to the party remains in question. The process is in progress. Moreover, the humiliated Maoists militia men too may pose a grave threat, time permitting, to the very existence of the party they served while being in the jungles in the course of waging a war with their own state and motherland. They now feel cheated by their own party higher echelon leaders.
A section of this frustrated militias have already begun ventilating their indignation against their once upon a time “revered leaders”. They are now the wounded lions.
With Chairman Prachanda, the declared messiah of the proletariat, moving on to a new posh aristocratic bungalow (presumed to be his own property now worth ten million plus) has added fuel to the fire which may enrage the party’s lower rung cadres any time from now.
Talking as regards the Maoists inner tussle, well! No body on earth can predict as to what is the real purpose behind this dramatised struggle. As for Chairman Dahal, a double speak as he is, cannot be trusted. He is with Dr. Bhattarai and the next moment he is with the Mohan Baidya camp. He is with Ambassador Houlan and also with Jayant Prasad. No one can excel his diplomatic acumen.
Though Bhattarai and Mohan Baidya differ in their perceptions on the prevailing Nepali politics yet both some days ago reiterated in chorus that “revolt” was their common goal.
Chairman Dahal may appear to have bridged the Baidya-Bhattarai widening gap; however, this is not true, analysts claim. In fact, Chairman Dahal plays his own game by playing one rival against the other and gains politically. He has by this time comfortably conserved expertise in such unfair plays, if so that could be taken. The irony is that both Baidya and Bhattarai understand this Dahal manoeuvring but yet keep quiet because they have already concluded that Dahal only can keep the party alive and kicking. The personality factor perhaps.
Dahal is exploiting from their weaknesses. To boot, Dahal is the one who has duped both India and China, if one were to recall. He duped both the neighbours with proper finesse. Analysts presume that he will keep on playing China and India card against both the neighbours at an opportune moment that suits him politically.
Now let’s touch upon the overly stretched visit of former Nepal King to Delhi.
Carefully read the series of events that followed after his Delhi visit and the political meaning that lay underneath.
Remarkably, the former Nepal sovereign deliberately avoided Chinese Premier’s Nepal visit and headed towards Delhi.
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, notably and very calculatedly, suggested the Indo-pendent leaders who were lined up in a long queue-audience to continue to have cordial relations with the Indian regime.
He knew perhaps that this would be the best idea to forward to the lined up leaders from his side. He knew as to whom he was meeting.
The more meaningful thought came from across the border in the South. India’s proxy Prime Minister too suggested the Nepali leaders to enjoy cordial ties with China and that India would not mind Nepal’s increasing ties with the friend in the North. Unbelievable though but yet a fact.
The former King is still in Delhi and these two strikingly similar events or say million dollar utterances have been reverberating in the entire Himalayan South Asia.
This must have abundant meaning.
First, both China and India may have understood the Nepali compulsions for having close ties with both the countries in the South and the North because of its strategic geographical location.
Secondly, these utterances, indeed a friendly one, apparently possess the beneath political connotation that both China and India, at least for the moment, prefer not to come face to face with each other as is being given to understand by the RAW close Indian defence experts and some analysts from Beijing as well.
Thirdly, both India and China now understand that if they will go for a war, if that at all becomes a must unfortunately, then Nepal could definitely become a flashpoint (the Tibetan issue indeed) and thus both prefer now to keep Nepal in good stead with a faint hope that Nepal doesn’t become a friendly party to one of the two warring neighbours.
Fourthly, both China and India have, better late than never, now come to realise that something very special they were missing in Kathmandu which is perhaps, analysts presume, both miss a “stable partner” or let’s say a “political man who could look into their respective interests without harming the other as it used to be in the past prior to 2006 change”.
Fifthly, China is presumed to have told India in no uncertain terms not to get carried away with the US encouragements, which as the Chinese believe, has been pumping India to go against China as a proxy. India appears to have got the Chinese point.
Yet, Ms. Nancy Powell will do all she can to tease China by being in India, as and when she arrives in Delhi to take up her new assignments.
Both India and China, to boot, can’t afford war at this time.
Does this mean, if all put together, that both were in search of a “smart balancer”?