Nepal: Washington-Delhi axis revival likely
N. P. Upadhyaya
Kathmandu: Politics has not moved onward even an inch for the better instead is taking a downward slide.
The process is in progress.
Inter and intra party quarrel too has taken a new height leaving the lay men to guess as when and how the approaching political cataclysm will hit this nation hard. This is for sure. Things will become more clear beginning August, next month.
Half way of the extended three months extended period of the non-operational and money spinner Constituent Assembly body too has vanished in the ethereal medium and the rest will have the same fate as is being presumed with soaring authenticity.
The fresh crack in the Nepal Sadbhawana Party, NSP, led by Chairman Rajendra Mahato is yet another case in point which is sure to encourage some more so far "ignored" enthusiasts housed in various Madhesh based parties to make their fresh split adventures.
In true sense, the NSP split has given a new curl to Nepali politics more so to the politics based in the Terai or say Madhesh.
The new NSP fragment is led by fire brand Anil Kumar Jha who apparently is more reasonable leader compared to his colleagues from the Nepal's Madhesh belt. At least he doesn't speak on communal lines instead he favors communal harmony to exist among the Nepalese nationals wherever they reside. A sensible person. ( Read Jha's opinions this Wednesday).
Which force on earth made this rip to take a formal shape is any body's guess? What could not and should not be overlooked is that this split will surely hit the Madhesh based parties' vociferous demands for a single Madhesh in the entire Terai belt.
We have by now some twelve Madhesh based parties and the CA body will have some thirty plus parties to feed.
Now let's change the topic and switch on to the Nepali Congress.
This party of late is undergoing through a very difficult period. Sher Bahadur Deuba who is taken as a man representing the Indo-US lobby in Nepali politics has suddenly become restive and begun dreaming of next Nepal Prime Ministerial post.
Deuba apparently has received some positive indications from Maoist Chairman Dahal and from a few Madhesh based "liberal" parties too that if he is the new parliamentary delegation head of the NC party in the parliament then these parties could take his concerns seriously.
The NC too in an apparent manner has provided its positive nod favoring Deuba.
However, the fact is that Chairman Dahal will first himself prefer to be the Nepal PM. If that becomes a distant affair then he is already committed in favor of his arch rival-Dr. Bhattarai.
And even this scheme failed perchance then he is on record to have already stated that the incumbent Prime Minister Khanal will continue for an indefinite period.
Thus if Deuba is counting on Dahal's assurances then wisdom would demand that Deuba drop his scheme as Dahal no longer remains a political persona who could be trusted at least in the given time when his own Party Presidency is at a stake. Nepali politics is nothing more than a fraudulent play.
Some six lobbies exist at the moment inside the Maoists party.
Fight for the Home Ministry has become a matter of fresh debate as to which lobby should be awarded the Home Ministry portfolio. Talks are there that Chairman Dahal is slowly coming to terms with his rivals.
But yet Deuba is resolute to depose his party rival Ram Chandra Poudel from the current post of the parliamentary delegation chief. To recall, the NC has a chartered policy that the one who is the PP delegation chief has his right to forward his claim over the Nepal Prime Ministerial post.
Thus Deuba wants to sack Poudel even if he has to push a no confidence motion against Ram Chandra Poudel.
NC has ever remained a divided lot. Sushil Da now favors Deuba's elevation.
President Koirala understands the fact that Deuba's adventure must have backing from some powerful nations in the vicinity and beyond.
Poor Poudel, unfortunately, enjoys the Indian support only, it is talked. The European Countries not even take him as a Nepali leader worth the name.
Nevertheless, NC President Koirala has landed in Nepal after making a long "free trip" from abroad and, as was expected, he landed in New Delhi apparently to get "indoctrinated" by his mentors seated at the South Block.
The Nepal government must have paid the entire bills of Sushil Koirala. The Koiralas' feel great in taxing the national exchequer.
South Block is in a fix. The Indian Sahibs do not want to see Khanal to remain in power for long. They do not trust Prachanda-their own creation, any more for some political reasons.
Bhattarai from the Maoists camp could have been a better choice for the Indian regime to take control of Nepali politics for some understandable reasons; however, the Indian maliks now have begun suspecting the very political credentials of the Jawaharlal Nehru Varsity Graduate for having joined hands with the hardliner of the Maoists Party-Mohan Baidya, whom India takes as a man who is stepping up anti-India sentiments in Nepal as if it were not enough.
Yet the Maoists party has forwarded his name as the next Nepal Prime Minister.
UML leader K. P. Oli also could have been a preferred one of the Nepal rulers seated in Delhi but the tragedy with Oli is that he is not a CA member.
Thus in sum, India has no choice other than to support Sher Bahadur Deuba who is in line with the Washington-Delhi nexus.
He is ready to provide his "loyal" service to this revived 'axis' if elevated, analysts have been told.
The added advantage to India is that since Deuba is also very much close to the now sidelined Nepal monarchy; the latter could also be "used" time permitting to fulfill the unaccomplished tasks.
By the way, it was Deuba who sold Mahakali River to India at a dirt cheap price. Deuba thus is an India man, it is widely believed albeit the garb is different.
More over, if Deuba is elevated as the new Nepal Prime Minister then the US-India axis will receive a loyal friend in Nepal who could be told to tease China on a regular basis.
The fresh meet of President Obama with the Dalai Lama ignoring the repeated Chinese request and warnings that followed does tell that the US will do all it can in order to destabilize Tibet afresh from the Nepali soil enjoying overt and covert support from the Indian regime. The likelihood remains.
It should be in this ongoing global "undercurrent" political perspective, Sher Bahadur Deuba's increased excitement for grabbing the Nepal Prime Ministerial post has to be taken. Moreover, Hilary Clinton very freshly appealed India to lead the Asian continent. Pressure is sure to mount on China sooner than later.
A new tool for the Indo-US lobby is in the making in this part of the Himalayan Asia, analysts presume it to be so though it will take some more time to take a formal shape.
How the Chinese tackle this approaching uneasy event will have to be watched.
For the road: Sushil Koirala while in New Delhi had a secret talk with the Indian Ambassador designate, Jayant Prasad. A contingent of Nepali journalists is currently on a Delhi trip.
The events are moving fast but Ambassador Sood is not yet in a packing mood. But why he is not leaving Nepal? He should for God sake!
( Story written on July 19, 2011, posted with some additions July 25, 2011).