N. P. Upadhyaya, Biratnagar
Kathmandu: One month plus of the extended three months of the “legal garbage” Constituent Assembly body has gone to the waste basket.
Analyzing the political approach and the trends of the declared political ruffians seated at the helm of state affairs, it is highly likely that the remaining sixty days will desecrate polluting the entire Nepali environment and beyond-from where it originated.
The entire thought appears to have been guided by the design not to draft the constitution and keep the peace process in an indeterminate state and finally push the country towards the approaching crag at the earliest and allow the country to be mercilessly ruled by foreign military men. Guess which armed force will be airlifted to Nepal? This also explains as to why the last popular movement was waged in Nepal.
It was with a purpose to which the Nepali leaders could not comprehend in advance. That was an unfortunate event. At least this much is being analyzed by some sharp brains.
The rush of some key RAW officials last month and their inner mal-intent to dissolve the Constituent Assembly must not have been without any substantial reason. Add to this the secret trip made by one Indian national, Nihar Naik, to Kathmandu and his one- to-one talks with several key Nepali personalities does tell that India will not settle for less than the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly at any cost.
Mr. Naik is talked to represent one New Delhi based Institute funded by the RAW.
The Indian regime now has concluded that the raison d'être of the Nepal CA body has ceased to exist and that the country must be thrown to the sympathy of a fresh election which, if maneuvered professionally through its declared local agents and salaried servants, in all likelihood bring down the Maoists from their current numerical strength to a level wherein the Maoists will not have such a greater say in Nepali politics to what they enjoy at the moment.
The idea of having a fresh election is gaining strength. Beginning Kamal Thapa, who is also taken in Kathmandu's political spectrum as an undeclared man of the Southern neighbor, the fresh election demand is also being subscribed by some key politicians belonging to other parties, for example, the Nepali Congress, Dr. Minendra Rizal for example, and Madhesh based party leaders.
It could be a mere speculation indeed but the timing of such a demand appear more than logical in that the current CA body, majority of the population including major party leaders too figure out that within the left less than two months, could draft neither the preface of the constitution nor the peace process be completed.
In many more ways than one, the lay men too conclude that the present day CA body be dissolved because its repeated extension would mean the breaking the vertebral stamina of the country's existing economy which is already in a very bad shape. Thanks the selling of RED Passports have come to a halt.
Some even say that Nepal has no economy as such worth the name.
It is this inner psyche of the majority of the population which is being cashed in upon by the Indian command which more often than not gets ventilated as and when some "influenced Nepali leaders" talk of having fresh election.
The ongoing inner party frenzied fight appears to take a new height in the coming days more so in the Maoists party.
The party of the former rebels is experiencing a great menace for its existence even though the intimidation has emanated from within.
A fight to finish is what has become the seal of the Maoists party of late. The ferocious of the long-gone era is being treated by his own colleagues no more than a wet cat. With viciousness and the bought charisma gone, Chairman Prachanda, the former Delhi, NOIDA dweller, is very much likely to be sacked from the current post which he continued to enjoy since two decades or so under this or that pretext and that too uninterruptedly. This speaks of Dahal's shrewd political acumen.
The unholy coalition in between Mohan Baidya-Kiran and Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai has tentatively a single point schema which is being either sacking of Chairman Dahal and if that becomes impossible then at least to coerce him to abide by the party's instructions.
Dahal has been charged by his colleagues that he acts on his own and ignores party's structured decisions if that benefited him personally.
Some 18 grave allegations have been labeled upon Chairman Dahal by the Mohan Baidya-Bhattarai camp which apparently has forced Dahal to go in for several sleepless nights. Analysts have been told that Dahal is not feeling well these days. It is only but natural.
But will Chairman Dahal yield so easily?
His detractors opine that a politically astute Dahal will hush-hush the matter by devising newer strategies and finally convincing his opponents that he will abide by their instructions henceforth.
In the art of cheat, deceit and double talk, claim insiders of the Maoists, Dahal has obtained a doctoral degree and thus he would silence his opponents even this time in a surprising manner.
New Delhi must now have understood well the hidden potential and the talent of Chairman Dahal.
(Freshly, Dahal has won the hearts of his mentor-Baidya).Other sources say that Baidya has once again acquired his hardline posture.
Similarly, the UML is not also in a good shape as it should have been because it is the ruling party.
The Nepal-Oli combine have begun teasing Prime Minister Khanal forwarding this or that flimsy reasons and have begun demanding afresh the immediate resignation of their own party Prime Minister.
Khanal will not resign, claim sources close to the Prime Minister.
Incidentally, the Nepali-Oli campaign has taken a new start with New Delhi formally announcing that Jayant Prasad Srivastava will soon be sent to take control over Nepal as India's Ambassador.
The Nehruvian doctrine is still alive and kicking.
The Nepal-Oli duo has reasons to panic because this combine feels that the newly appointed Chinese Ambassador will influence the entire Nepali politics much ahead of the arrival of the Indian envoy. (He has already become more than active). Nothing will be left for the Indian Ambassador to command in Nepali politics. It should have been this pain that may have encouraged Nepal-Oli duo to intensify their demand of PM Khanal. Khanal, by the way, has already met with the Chinese Ambassador, Yang Houlan, and the latter has on Monday, June 27, 2011, expressed his serious concerns over the possible instability in Tibet from the Nepali soil and has demanded from Nepal Home Minister gave determined assurances that Nepal will not be allowed to be used by elements that are generally inimical to China.
China is in an assertive mood. This much is visible for the moment.
(By this time, Ambassador Houlan has met Prachanda and has had one hour long talks. He has also met with veteran communist leader, Narayanman Bijukche).
In addition, the three billion dollar assistance provided to Nepal by one Chinese Foundation for the face lift of Lumbini too has jolted the politics of this country and the Indo-pendent lobby in Kathmandu has already become nervous. A natural phenomenon. The tremor has also been felt outside Nepali territories, we have been told.
The gist is that soon China will face India in Kathmandu. China appears determined to secure its logical space in Nepali politics to which India will oppose tooth and nail.
Thus the country's politics is sure to observe a sort of North-South polarization of a different sort which may bring more troubles for this already troubled nation.
How China and India play their respective cards will have to be watched. Economic blockade, a la 1989 March 23, card will be the best for India to tame Nepal. It has been rightly said that if two elephants even shake hands, it is the grass which gets smashed.
But the one here is a determined dragon! The North-South polarization is sure to hit this country soon.
PS: By the way, some two dozen high officials of the Nepalese security agencies together with some key home ministry bureaucrats have already left for Beijing in what has been described as an “exclusive” for Nepal.