New Delhi Searching Reliable Political Deterrence

N. P. Upadhyaya

Kathmandu: To be outspoken, the Dhaka SAARC Summit, 2005, catapulted the Nepali politics.

Let's admit this unsympathetic reality.

No wonder, as is becoming excruciatingly visible, those who assisted in making upside down this Himalayan nation's politics and the one, right here in  Kathmandu,  who took a hard posture against the Indian regime at the Dhaka Summit, both have come to their creative senses.

Some declared sinister(s) were hell bent on damaging Nepal-India relations which have come to the fore.

Quislings enough in the pay roll of both the nations.

Clearly speaking, King Gyanendra then had remained determined against the Indian regime in having secretly supporting the Nepal Maoists who were then residing in NOIDA, New Delhi under the special care of the Indian regime and had been in a subtle manner hinting the Indian regime not to speak or act double.

His message was not heard, unfortunately.

The fact was bulldozed by some who had gone senile by then.

While being in Jakarta, 2005, during a meet with the Indian Prime Minister Dr. Singh, then King Gyanendra had point blank assured the Indian Prime Minister that he was ready to let go by power to the then seven agitating parties if the Nepal Maoists were tamed and the country restored peace.

(To recall, prior to New Delhi engineered agreement, the demonstrations were limited to Ratnapark to Ratnapark. 

The Indian PM tentatively agreed to what had been suggested by Nepal King but failed in persuading his own colonial hangover bureaucrats who were hell bent on "teaching" a lesson to King Gyanendra. Shyam Saran was the main baddie. He is now in a mood to kill Nepal-China ancient relations, if one were to listen to his anti-China tirade.

Buffoonery remarks he made only recently to malign Nepal-China ties.

Ambassador Mukherjee and Shyam Saran could be taken as classic examples.  

They were simply close to Goliaths.

Now Ambassador Sood is in their shoes. His downfall is round the corner.

He has some six months now in Nepal. Bear shortening the months of his Nepal humiliating tenure.

Later when the Nepal King concluded that Indian regime was a different rough and tough stuff, he too on his part decided to "tease" India by openly campaigning for the Chinese entrance into the SAARC regional organisation during the Dhaka Summit.

China be included in the SAARC as an Observer is what the Nepal King advocated forcefully.

He succeeded in his bold undertaking, pressed hard by his own detractors in his own cabinet, but fairly invited Himalayan anger for himself from the Indian regime-the arch rival of China.

He had to face the music and he listened to the music that must not have been an ear pleasing one for him.

China remained a mere bystander when the Nepal King was humiliated by the Indian regime to the extent that the King was told to pack by the agitating parties once and for all.

The King packed his baggage on June 11, 2008, and straight headed for Nagarjun Jungles.

China did not come forward in helping the King when he needed the support of the Northern neighbour most.

This is puzzling. The Nepal King became the first martyr in the name of Nepal-China relations ever recorded.

Now coming down the lane of five years or so, both India and King Gyanendra have apparently got the point, China included.

A grand realisation dawned upon King Gyanendra who could see what India meant in Nepali politics. This could have apparently been the reason that even after King Gyanendra lost "everything" what had been earned by his forefathers, including the one who unified this nation what is called Nepal today, has not spoken anything sharp and unpleasant against India during his long years of hibernation in the Nagarjun Jungles awarded to him by the Nepal government.

Grand reversal of the Jungle dwellers.

Tryst of destiny. Classic experiments of the Indian wizards!

But the pain is equally in the Indian quarters as well for having dismantled an Institution in Nepal which, though remained always a Pro-Indian lobby in Nepal for a variety of reasons, at least kept China at a comfortable distance over decades and decades.

Ex-King Gyanendra has so many business transactions with India even as of today.

Now that China has advanced and has flexed its physique already in Nepal, the Indian losing of its nerves is real.

The panic is likely to further increase in the days and months ahead. Come November 25, next week, a high powered Chinese delegation is landing in Nepal to be followed, as is the rumour, by yet another equally high level delegation.

Prachanda has reasons to beam.

Moreover, India perhaps has already over and done with that the increasing diffusion of the Chinese regime in Nepali affairs and the North presumably cheering the Nepal Maoists to go berserk against the regime in the South could have been the net result of the absence of Monarchy in Nepal.

This is what the analysts here believe.

The non-ending, or say ever increasing, visit of Chinese delegations in Nepal and the secret trips being made in series by the Nepal Maoists to Beijing and Hongkong must have irritated the Indian establishment to the hilt forcing New Delhi to go in search for a suitable and reliable "political deterrent" in Nepal which could not only keep Beijing at a distance but concurrently be India friendly.

The men at the South Asia Analysis Group have abundant reasons to weep.  

The search thus continues but, as things stand today as per the media reports, the Indian regime is very close to the search which it had been searching for almost one year or so, to be precise this search began December 9, 2008 from the dark suites of Hotel Soaltee.

Perhaps it is this New Delhi search that former Nepal King is on a private trip to India. The Indian search and Gyanendra's trip to Delhi has some connections, matured analysts claim.

Connections at times could be manufactured.

In politics and in the domain of conduct between the nations, diplomacy is practiced by each and every country to safe guard its prime interests.

But there is no free lunch in diplomacy.

Preservation of national interests is taken as supreme compared to other peripheral interests. Indian diplomacy is geared towards that direction now more so after Obama's grand assurance that he will do all he can in order to ensure a permanent seat to India at the UN Security Council. Could be a lip service only in order to do business. The US is not that fool and knows how to seduce India.

India is overly excited with Obama pledge.

The prime condition for this exalted seat for India, as far as analysts understand, would first be to take its smaller neighbours in confidence in that none of India's neighbours were at the moment in good terms with New Delhi's role of a hegemon that it is.

In order to assure the immediate neighbours, India must develop intimate relations and also tell her neighbours that henceforth Delhi will not poke its nose in the internal affairs of the terrified neighbours.

At best, an annoyed and disturbed Pakistan too must be taken into confidence by the Indian regime or else the Islamic Republic of Pakistan can create, and has the ability to do so, ample disturbances at time of India's elevation in the UN Security Council seat, if it at all takes a formal shape.

If India's neighbours' begin thinking and take India in a different mood, if the change is there, then the Indian desire or say the Obama assurances may take a formal shape or else it will remain a mirage for India.

To begin with, India perhaps wants to see a politically stable Nepal with Nepal Maoist's wings cut.

India will, by the way, also want Chinese penetration in Nepali affairs to come down to a level which New Delhi can digest.

For all these to happen, India is likely to seduce the now sidelined King Gyanendra and may seek substantial support from the latter in bringing the swinging Nepali politics in its favour to the extent possible.

As stated, India wants its interests preserved in Nepal at any cost for all time to come.

In 2005, India may have concluded that it was Nepal King whose excessive hobnob with the Chinese regime were destabilising New Delhi's structured interests in Nepal and thus preferred to overthrow the monarchical institution through the effective use of the 12 point agreement.

However, during these past five years, India appears to have realised that its foreign policy as regards Nepal was a flawed one and thus Delhi wants to correct the past diplomatic blunders.

But how?

The news that sidelined Nepal King is meeting the Indian Prime Minister and the Indian Queen, Sonia Gandhi, while being in New Delhi has some meaning underneath.

If a New Delhi engineered 12 point agreement can sideline the King of Nepal then yet another agreement of a similar sort could also restore the overthrown Monarchy.

Simple logic.

Clearly, India will look into her interests. And in doing so, New Delhi will not take care of who becomes the next martyr(s) in Nepal.

China too will be more than happy, in case this reinstatement takes a formal shape, because she understands that Nepal monarchy will always remain a China friendly institution. Beijing more over understands that the Nepali monarchy in the past always looked to Chinese interests as well without harming Indian commanding prerogatives.

High placed sources have told this paper that both China and India prefer now the restoration of the sidelined institution for their own interests that are aplenty.

The question is how?

Having said all these, the question thus come to the mind of the Nepali academia as to whether the sidelined King while meeting Dr. Singh and Madame Gandhi will surrender himself to the mercy of those who virtually sidelined him or will collect the courage to talk to them keeping his heads high as a proud Nepali citizen?

Accommodative subtle compromise keeping heads high or a complete surrender? Only two options the former King has with him under his sleeves.

If he surrenders on Indian terms and bows down to Indian dictates then he will instantly lose whatever prestige left he has inside Nepal. Testing time for him being a proud Nepali or a subservient one?

The choice is yours!

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Comments

  • Posted on - 2010-11-23    by     samrat~
  • Indian.... ! you ....of curry ... people..Wake up from your dream! why is it everywhere in the world you are, people make fun of your guffy face and accent ? Northern part of your country belongs to Nepal and will be a greater nepal one day.. it is other way around, not nepal will be india but big chunk of your country will be gone...From west, Pakistan will ...behind, from south sri lanka, from west Banladesh and from North Nepal & china because you langoors have annoyed all your neighbors..Start counting your days..There will be no India but Khalistan, Jharkhanda, chatis gadh etc...Your ....me country like your national food will look like pees.
  • Posted on - 2010-11-22    by     Suman
  • Very high-quality Judgment. These are the dark facts of Nepal. India always did monopoly in Nepal. Because of different situations of Nepal and China’s involvement make them irritated. What they can do now? China already showed their interest in Nepal. Billions of $ we are spending/importing through Indian lands since decades, now China is looking that business in Nepal. Main thing is who spend more money to bring Nepalese power to their side. Current situation I don’t think ex king Ganendra is powerful. Ganendra supporters in Army has been changed to UML and NC. If Ganendra wants power then he has to walk in the way of Himani Shah with Indian support. Or NC, UML and ex-King and India have to join together to cut Maoist’s wings. But even though, Chinese intervention/business, India cannot push back them. Indian cannot execute in their own country in China’s business matter, how can they force back in Nepal?
  • Posted on - 2010-11-22    by     Saru
  • Dear Indian your intentions are good but please dont compare Nepal to Hongkong. Because Hongkong was always a part of China its just that it was colonised by the British and now its back to China but as far as Nepal is concerned Nepal was never colonised by any of the colonial power and it was never a part of India. Yes we have a cultural bonding and age long relationship and we can definitely work on that to make both the contries happy and prosperous.
  • Posted on - 2010-11-19    by     Jai Nepal
  • I can beleive some of your helplesness. Be a man and write your own destiny. Get over it people this country is heading towards total peoples republic. Gynandra and his cronies can only find place to further hide once the full strength peoples valcano errupts. Thanks to nicesties of Nepalese that they didn,t behead the monarch like the monrch of other countries during revolutions.
  • Posted on - 2010-11-19    by     .
  • Some kings were beheaded hundreds of years back, but so called communist dictators were shot dead only few years back. Still in N. Korea and Cuba they kill each other only on the basis of doubt. Best joke for the kids, peoples republic in Nepal???? Stupid followers of failed system should look for a place to hide and their leaders will be draged to the international court for mass killing. Really Maoists volcano will be erupted? No, they are already dry well. A frog can't be of a "Dharni". Frog can't scare a cobra by inflating it's tiny body.