N. P. Upadhyaya
Kathmandu: Nepali politics has been left to the mercy of the Almighty.
The Almighty in all likelihood has advised the Indian establishment to take care of the Nepalese politics and that is why perhaps without even informing Nepal government authorities more so the Nepal Foreign Ministry, a self styled Indian national who claimed himself to be the special envoy of India's proxy Prime Minister landed in Nepal last Wednesday.
Whether he was the one as claimed or not, nobody knew in Nepal but yet Shyam Saran met practically all the declared Indo-pendent Nepali leaders and "instructed" them all to act per his suggestions.
The acquiescent and ever dutiful Nepali leaders thronged to see this Indian national with a fervent hope that "he" would elevate them to power next round of Nepal PM election.
Shyam Saran did his trade well within his short span of three days stay in Nepal. He tentatively brought about a clear division in and among all the parties by talking different to different political parties and its leaders.
This was his Himalayan triumph for which he was basically sent by the Indian regime.
But Nepal's ugly and dirty leaders could not change themselves and have once again begun fighting with each other but in a different way. Old habits die hard, it is widely believed.
Shyam Saran's number one agenda was to cap the possibility of Maoist leader Prachanda's victory as Nepal's Prime Minister next come what may. He succeeded in his mission to a greater extent.
He-Shyam Saran- appears to have encouraged Prachanda's deputy, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, for the next Nepal PM post and is learnt to have also "lobbied" for Dr. Bhattarai's elevation as the Nepal Prime Minister while talking to the Nepali Congress and some preferred Nepal's Madhes parties.
An overly excited Bhattarai even met Saran at Hotel Dwarikas for over two hours secretly, Friday August 6, 2010, who has now begun saying in an indirect manner that "the one who manages consensus from all the parties for the next Nepal PM post should be allowed to file his nomination for the PM post".
This does mean that Dr. Bhattarai is now confident that he is or could be the lone "consensus" candidate among the crowd if every thing went smoothly.
He thus remains assured and very much certain that Shyam Saran has put his entire strength on his PM candidacy.
But how Comrade Prachanda and his ilk who take Dr. Bhattarai tentatively as and India man will gulp this "bitter pill" will perhaps determine the very fate of the Maoists as a party as far as its existence is concerned.
Dr. Bhattarai remains undeterred and retorts by stating that those who see in him an India man were all mentally retarted ones.
However, what is for sure is that if Prachanda is pushed to the wall, as is the Indian design, and Dr. Bhattarai elevated as next Nepal PM then the party of the former rebels may not remain as a solid political entity.
Prachanda for the time being has acquired a posture of silence but is learnt to have been in close contact with the former Royalists.
The Royalists now have started claiming that the Maoists were in favor of revival of the Nepali monarchy in some form or the other.
Politics is getting a new twirl. Whether it is for the better or just the otherwise is difficult to analyse at this critical juncture.
The second agenda of Shyam Saran was to convince the Nepali Congress that if Dr. Bhattarai could not be made the next Nepal PM then the Indian regime may think of NC candidate Ram Chandra Poudel for the Chief executive post of Nepal.
But for both, Dr. Bhattarai and Poudel, to win the election, Saran needs to convince the UML to refrain from its present stance of remaining neutral at time of the election.
Perhaps he has infleunced the UML for the UML is all set to "revise" its policy of neutrality in today's CC meeting.
But yet what is not for sure is that the entire CA members of the UML will vote in favor of Dr. Bhattarai or or Poudel as the UML too has two differeing lobbies inside the party.
While Jhal Nath Khanal and his camp would want to see Prachanda still as the next Nepal PM then the lobby led by Oli-Nepal combine will definitely favor Dr. Bhattarai or Poudel as per the instructions of their alien masters.
The same could be said of the Nepal Maoist party as it has already the grand existence of two factions. One prefers Prachanda then the other favors Dr. Bhattarai.
So even if Dr. Bhattarai is the consensus candidate, there is no guarantee that the Maoist party en masse will favor Dr. Bhattarai or even Prachanda because of the presence of two diffeering lobbies.
In all, how the "magic Delhi formulae" will work in the existing political scenario is very difficult to understand but yet what is for sure is that New Delhi ultimately will find a suitable horse in Nepal even if the Nepal PM election stretches for twenty more rounds.
New Delhi's bottom line is clear which is to have a comfortable horse at any cost.
To ensure this eventuality, Shyam Saran was here.